Kenya Kwanza Alliance may be at risk of losing its majority status in the National Assembly to Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition following recent revelations from the Registrar of Political Parties, Ann Nderitu. In an affidavit filed in court, Nderitu confirmed that only one party had legally left Azimio by June 2023, suggesting that the coalition remains largely intact despite reports of members leaving. This affidavit fuels a potential shift in power dynamics within the National Assembly, as Azimio could contest Kenya Kwanza’s control over significant legislative positions.
This court filing reignites a longstanding dispute over which coalition holds the majority in the House, a debate previously settled by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula. In October 2022, Wetang’ula ruled in favor of Kenya Kwanza as the majority party, pointing to defections from Azimio by parties like the United Democratic Movement (UDM) and Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC) to Kenya Kwanza. Wetang’ula’s decision emphasized procedural flexibility for members to leave coalitions, allowing Kenya Kwanza to maintain a numerical advantage with 179 members compared to Azimio’s 157. However, with Azimio disputing the majority’s legitimacy, the coalition’s intact status as confirmed by Nderitu could influence the upcoming court ruling on the matter in February 2025.
Azimio has consistently argued that coalition agreements should prevent abrupt exits by constituent parties, based on the Political Parties Act, which mandates formal notification to the Registrar. However, Wetang’ula countered this interpretation, suggesting that coalition regulations might infringe on members’ constitutional freedom to associate or disassociate with political entities as they choose. The upcoming court ruling could either reaffirm Wetang’ula’s initial decision or recognize Azimio as the majority if Nderitu’s affidavit holds significant weight in the judicial review.
The court’s decision in February 2025 will be crucial in determining the balance of power in the National Assembly and could reshape Kenya’s political landscape. This ruling will have broader implications, potentially challenging Kenya Kwanza’s influence over parliamentary leadership and key legislative roles.
